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Are Home Values Really Overinflated?

Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their most recent Existing Home Sales Report. According to the report:

“The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $240,500, up 5.8 percent from January 2017 ($227,300). January’s price increase marks the 71st straight month of year-over-year gains.”

Seventy-one consecutive months of price increases may have some concerned that current home values may be overinflated.

However, at the same time, Zillow issued a press release which revealed:

“If the housing bubble and bust had not happened, and home values had instead appreciated at a steady pace, the median home value would be higher than its current value.”

Here are two graphs that help show why home prices are exactly where they should be.

The first graph shows actual median home sales prices from 2000 through 2017.

Are Home Values Really Overinflated? | MyKCM

By itself, this graph could heighten concerns as it shows home values rose in the early 2000s, came tumbling down and are now headed up again. It gives the feel of a rollercoaster ride that is about to take another turn downward.

However, if we also include where prices would naturally be, had there not been a boom & bust, we see a different story.

Are Home Values Really Overinflated? | MyKCM

The blue bars on this graph represent were prices would be if they had increased by the normal annual appreciation rate (3.6%). By adding 3.6% to the actual 2000 price and repeating that for each subsequent year, we can see that prices were overvalued during the boom, undervalued during the bust, and a little bit LOWER than where they should be right now.

Bottom Line

Based on historic appreciation levels, we should be very comfortable that current home values are not overinflated.

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The ancient mountains, rolling hills, and pristine creeks and rivers of the North Georgia mountains have a way of calling you out into the wild, no matter the season. And the majestic mountain setting that makes the outdoors so fun and inviting also provides some of the most amazing backdrops for a home as well. Many natives to the area have perfected the art of “porch swing sitting” and will be happy to share their notes with those who need to relax a bit. With so many homes having views of nothing but the majesty of nature in many different forms, it’s no wonder the art of sitting quietly to unwind is widespread. It’s also widely understood and ensured that these mountains will remain pristine for many generations to come. The Chattahoochee National Forest makes up a large majority of land in the region, and therefore it will remain virtually unchanged and undeveloped by people for many, many years to come. The bounties of the land and celebration of mountain heritage are favorite themes for the many festivals held throughout the area and throughout the year. Local farmers, mountain artisans and entertainers have a huge, artistic and loving stage on which to showcase their talents. People from all over the world and from all walks of life come to enjoy the good food and good times of these southern Appalachian festivals. The incredible display of Mother Nature in these mountains is definitely a great reason to find a home here, add to that the never ending events and abundance of talented and lovely people and there’s really no reason not to.

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